2006-07: Pundits scoffing at predictions of economic meltdown

[kevyn]

This is video quite amusing to watch:

Peter Shiff is apparently someone to pay attention to on economic matters, because he got it right. He appears to be a real analyst, not a cheerleader, unlike so many of the talking heads on TV.

Ben Stein comes off looking particularly bad in hindsight, especially when he goes all bullish on Merrill Lynch. And Charles Payne's prediction that WaMu will be the stock to have in 2008 is a real laugh.

( Ganked from BoingBoing )

Comments

Oooh, here's a good one

[snousle.livejournal.com]

It turns out that I have been personally affected by Shiff being wrong. From a May interview at:

http://www.usnews.com/articles/business/your-money/2008/05/30/permabear-peter-schiffs-worst-case-scenario.html

Why don't you think soaring oil, grains, or commodities prices are the next bubble?

These prices do not constitute bubbles. They simply constitute the repricing of goods to reflect the diminished value of our money. The way you can tell there's not a bubble is that these markets are clearing. People are buying food and eating it. They're buying gasoline and using it. Speculators aren't buying gasoline and warehousing it in big facilities because they think the price is going to go up. At the same time, we've increased the supply of money dramatically, and the Fed is increasing it even faster now to deal with the bursting of the housing bubble. The only thing that can happen is for prices of commodities to rise to reflect the equilibrium of a greater supply of money.

Wow, was he ever wrong on that. My father bought Tek-Cominco at $35 a share based on an expectation of rising commodity prices, and the recent collapse of what can only be called a bubble drove the price down to less than $5 while also clobbering the Canadian dollar. Now, this is a stock that is especially sensitive to metals and oil prices, but their investment was based on exactly the advice Shiff was giving. They lost a LOT of money now that oil is down to $60 instead of the $200 that Shiff predicted. Not a small matter; this is one of the very few things my father has ever mentioned to me about his finances.

My point is, there is a huge gap between "being right" on TV and making money in practice. This video is really just propaganda.